Exploring the un-sleazy side of gambling through math, statistics, economics, and psychology.

Thinking Bettor isn’t your average gambling website.


Simply put: It’s not about helping you win, and you won’t find any “lead-pipe locks” here.

Don’t get me wrong. It’s very possible that the concepts you learn here will help your bottom line. It’s just that winning isn’t the point.

Thinking Bettor is about the fascinating mathematical and statistical underpinnings of gambling. It’s about the economics and psychology that help explain how and why we make decisions— many of them wrong or inconsistent—about gambles.

And it’s about anything that makes you think harder about gambling.  Books, problems, puzzles, and the things you’ll hear people say about randomness that are downright wrong.

Thinking Bettor will make you a better thinker about gambling.  It’ll make you a better gambler, in the sense that when you truly understand gambling, it becomes a hell of a lot more fun.

And by helping you understand when you have the best of it and why a juicy-sounding bet may be too good to be true, maybe (just maybe) it’ll help you win an extra bet or two.

Sound interesting?  To automatically receive free updates about new Thinking Bettor posts in your email inbox or reader, use the subscribe button below or the email form in the sidebar.

About the Author

Matt Frazier is a doctoral student in Applied Mathematics.  His research is in the microstructure of financial markets, with a focus on modeling the stochastic processes and stochastic differential equations which govern the behavior of options traders.

Essentially, it’s gambling.

Matt has created and programmed several models for predicting the outcomes of sporting events, including professional football, professional baseball, and college basketball.  He has also programmed a dynamic implementation of poker author David Sklanky’s “The System” as explained in the classic Tournament Poker for Advanced Players.

None of this has yet allowed Matt to retire.